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For the week of April 16, 2007

"THIS NEWSLETTER IS HEREBY CERTIFIED AS BEING 100% "IMUS FREE".

.But just in case you didn't get enough of the Don Imus story that seemed to infiltrate every minute of news time last week...just turn on the television or radio for 30 seconds and you're sure to catch an update. The market had a busy week on its own...and the Fed took center stage, with the "Minutes" from the last Fed meeting being released, as well as several members out and about on the speaking circuit.

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For the week of December, 19 2005

"ANTICIPATION…ANTICIPA-A-TION IS MAKING ME LATE, IS KEEPING ME WAITING"

...and whether this line conjures up images of Carly Simon or a slow pouring Heinz ketchup bottle, “inflation anticipation” is now the tune home loan rates are dancing to. Inflation is the arch-enemy of fixed income Bonds and therefore home loan rates, so the anticipation of inflation slowing is music to Bond traders ears. Last week, the Fed made their thirteenth consecutive .25% hike to the Fed Funds Rate, but made an interesting change of note to the Policy Statement. The statement removed the word “accommodative” in terms of their monetary policy, signaling that inflation appears to be contained, and that their rate hikes may be nearing an end. more

For the week of December, 12 2005

HOT OR NOT?

Just like the infamous website where voters determine if you are “hot” or “not”...inflation seems to be in the crosshairs with no answer in store just yet. Bonds and home loan rates have been worsening over the past several months based on the fears that inflation is indeed heating up. But they did gain some improvement early last week on news that inflation from wages was softening. The 3rd Quarter Productivity Report showed the headline productivity number surged to a 4.7% annual rate – hotter than expectations and the fastest rate in two years – which would seem to be bad news for Bonds and rates. But Traders noticed that the report also showed Unit Labor Costs, a measure of wage inflation, actually declined. In fact, Unit Labor Costs have increased only minimally in the past year, showing reduced wage-based inflationary pressures...and Bonds reacted very favorably to this signal that perhaps inflation is not as “hot” as feared. more

For the week of December, 5 2005

NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS...BUT CAN GOOD NEWS BE BAD NEWS?

Sure seemed to be the case for Bonds and home loan rates over the past week, as hot economic news poured in and left home loan rates worsened by about .125% in the aftermath. Across the board, from consumer confidence to manufacturing to GDP to jobs; the economy appears to be clicking along at a good, strong pace. more

For the week of November 28, 2005

“THERE IS ALWAYS SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR. IF YOU CAN’T PAY YOUR BILLS...BE THANKFUL YOU AREN’T ONE OF YOUR CREDITORS.” ANON.

And although last week’s trading schedule was shortened due to the Thanksgiving holiday, Bonds finally made some moves to be thankful about, helping home loan rates improve by about .125%. The most notable news of the week was the release of the Federal Reserve’s last set of “meeting minutes”, the play by play of discussion during the last Fed meeting. It appears that more than a few members of the Fed feel that inflation is controlled, and the cycle of rate hikes may be coming to a close soon. These comments found thankful ears in both Stock and Bond Traders, and brought an across the board rally on the news. more

For the week of November 21, 2005

“THE ELEVATOR TO SUCCESS IS OUT OF ORDER. YOU HAVE TO USE THE STAIRS...ONE STEP AT A TIME.” Joe Girard

Although Bonds finally took a step in the right direction last week...it may not be time to haul out the champagne and celebrate their success quite yet. Bonds and home loan rates saw some modest improvements over the course of the week, largely due to tamer than expected inflation data on both the producer and consumer levels. And while this is a good sign, the overall trend of Bonds and home loan rates has been fairly negative in recent months, so optimism needs to be somewhat held in check. more

For the week of November 14, 2005

NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS...

or at least it seemed that way for the Bond market last week. In the absence of heavy hitting economic news, Bonds took a pause in their brutal decline and improved on other factors, including lower oil prices – finally! Oil dropped below $60 per barrel, largely due to unseasonably warm weather in the Northeast – furnaces haven’t been turned on just yet, helping to slow the demand for oil. more

For the week of November 7, 2005

THE HITS JUST KEEP ONNN COMIN’!

And we’re not talking baseball, not even the latest top 40 radio station...it’s the Bond market and home loan rates, taking hit after hit, right on the chin. As rates inched another .125% higher across the board last week , everyone seems to be singing the same tune. What is happening to cause the increases...and more importantly, when will it end? Let’s take a closer look at the interesting events of last week. more

For the week of October 31, 2005

BEN IS IN!

Big Ben Bernanke (pronounced Ber-NANK-kee) got the nod last week to take the reins in 2006 from retiring Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. The new man in the Chair has superb credentials, but is known for being more “dovish” than “hawkish” in the fight against inflation. Right or wrong, the perception among Traders that Bernanke might not fight as hard to curb inflation brought Bonds under selling pressure, as inflation is the main enemy of fixed return assets such as Bonds. Over the course of the week, home loan rates rose accordingly by about .125 across the board. more

For the week of October 24, 2005

WHOEVER SAID TALK WAS CHEAP?

All the talking done by Fed officials on inflation has scared Bonds and home loan rates into some losses over recent weeks. But last week, the talk got tough, as a parade of seven Federal Reserve officials took turns discussing plans for combating inflation. The inflation-hating Bond market was reassured, and home loan rates stabilized over the course of the week. more

For the week of October 17, 2005

“INFLATION IS WHEN YOU PAY FIFTEEN DOLLARS FOR THE TEN DOLLAR HAIRCUT YOU USED TO GET FOR FIVE DOLLARS…BACK WHEN YOU HAD HAIR” Sam Ewing

And with all the inflation talk on the streets, Bond pricing continues to get shaved lower and lower, causing home loan rates to inch up about .125% over the past week. Let’s take a closer look. more

For the week of October 10, 2005

START WEARING WARMER PAJAMAS!

And grab that extra sweater like Mom always said…average home heating costs will jump about $500 this winter. Adding the extra bucks needed to fill up the gas tank, lots of folks will have to watch their spending. All these extra costs caused by high oil prices add to inflation. Greenspan and the Fed are charged with fighting inflation, which they do by hiking short-term rates. Hiking these rates then pushes up the cost of Equity Lines and consumer loans, which in turn make it more expensive to borrow and buy. It’s a nasty cycle, and these factors have all contributed to the recent slide in Bond prices and jump in home loan rates. more

For the week of October 3, 2005

“ITS DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN”…Yogi Berra

And sure enough, the downward trading of Mortgage Bonds and upward trend of home loan rates during September looks like an exact replay of July’s poor performance. Why are Bond prices being pressured still lower, causing home loan rates to rise .125% just last week? It’s due to fears over inflation. Inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds because it erodes their value over time. Bondholders get a fixed payment as interest for their investment. But higher inflation eats away at the buying power of those fixed payments, so bondholders demand higher rates to compensate them when inflation rises. more

For the week of September, 26 2005

READY…SET…HIKE!

Fed Day came and went without much fanfare. Chairman Greenspan and his inflation-fighting friends at the Fed decided to hike up the Fed Funds Rate by another .25%, although the decision was not unanimous. More importantly, the commentary was fairly tame with no shockers for the market to absorb. Greenspan said that although the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina will be highly costly and inflationary, the long-term look at the economy shows that inflation is still “contained”. Sounds like you can bank on a few more hikes before Uncle Al turns over the keys to his successor…likely to be Fed Governor Ben Bernanke. more

For the week of September, 19 2005

“NOTHING IN FINE PRINT IS EVER GOOD NEWS” Andy Rooney

And although Traders studied every line, turns out last week’s economic data was a mixed platter…but served with a big side of inflationary concerns. Inflation is the arch-enemy of fixed income assets like Bonds, as over time, inflation naturally erodes the buying power of a fixed payment return. The rising concern over inflation caused Mortgage Bonds to break below several important technical floors last week, and home loan rates increased about .125% across the board. more

For the week of September, 12 2005

I’M NOT GOING TO BUY MY KIDS AN ENCYCLOPEDIA. LET THEM WALK TO SCHOOL LIKE I DID! -- Yogi Berra

And as the school year began across the country, Bond Traders had some studying to do of their own last week. 2nd Quarter productivity data was released with the report reeking of wage based inflation. Because unemployment has reached lower levels than seen in years, employers now need to pay higher wages in order to gain and retain employees. Inflation of any sort is the arch-enemy of fixed return Bonds, and home loan rates were slightly higher on the news, increasing about .125% over the course of the week. more

For the week of September, 6 2005

Sadly, the headline news of last week was Hurricane Katrina and her devastating path of destruction in the South.

While the overall magnitude of this natural disaster has yet to be fully comprehended and assessed, the immediate economic impact to the country will be felt in the way of higher energy costs. Approximately 25% of America’s oil and gas is distributed from New Orleans, and the entire city has essentially been destroyed. Further, it could take months to fully restore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, as Katrina put a stop to 92% of the Gulf region's regular crude oil output. more

For the week of August 29, 2005

HE’S LEAN, HE’S MEAN, HE’S AN ECONOMIC MACHINE

None other than our own Chairman Greenspan, who with his scintillating speech at the conference titled “The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future”, fired a shot across the bow of the housing sector on Friday. Although Greenspan remains consistent in his judgment that there is no national housing bubble, he has increased the level of his concern about the housing market in recent months. Especially directed towards highly speculative or investor markets, he threw up a yellow flag, saying "history has not dealt kindly" with those who think the good times will never end. more

For the week of August 22, 2005

EVERY DOG WILL HAVE HIS DAY

And as the “Dog Days” of summer carry on, Bond Traders found themselves chasing their tails all last week. Bonds traded in a choppy, see-saw pattern with prices down Monday, up Tuesday, down Wednesday, up Thursday, down Friday…and eventually finished up right where they started, leaving home loan rates unchanged overall. more

For the week of August 15, 2005

“FIRST THE DOCTOR TOLD ME THE GOOD NEWS. I WAS GOING TO HAVE A DISEASE NAMED AFTER ME” Steve Martin

… And Bonds love that kind of news as well – seemingly “negative” news items can be great news for Bond prices and home loan rates. As you may have heard, Greenspan and his inflation-fighting friends at the Fed decided once again to raise the Fed Funds Rate by .25%, the tenth such increase since starting their rate hike cycle last summer. Although many people equate rate hikes with bad news – this was great news for Bonds. Since inflation erodes the value of a fixed return Bond, this anti-inflationary move helped Bonds and home loan rates begin to move in a positive direction. more

For the week of August 8, 2005

“THERE WAS A POWER OUTAGE AT A DEPARTMENT STORE YESTERDAY. TWENTY PEOPLE WERE TRAPPED ON THE ESCALATORS.” Stephen Wright

…Just like Bonds seem to remain trapped on the “Down Escalator”, causing home loan rates to continue to rise. Last week, hopes for a break away from the miserable downward trend of Bond prices were crushed by a very strong Jobs Report. Remembering that good economic news is bad for Bonds and home loan rates and vice versa…let’s look at what happened. more

For the week of August 1, 2005

"LIFE IS A YO-YO…AND MANKIND TIES KNOTS IN THE STRING" (Anon.)

And much like a yo-yo, Bonds and home loan rates saw a few swings last week…but what were the "knots" in the action? Bond prices have been on a brutal and relentless downward trend of late - almost like a "Down Escalator" - causing home loan rates to worsen in recent days. But Bonds attempted to muscle a move off the escalator on Thursday, and it looked as if they might make a break. more

For the week of July, 25 2005

BATTER UP!

Will the batter decide to take the first pitch? Or will he swing away? Traders stepped up to the plate last week to wait on the pitch Alan Greenspan was going to hurl at them in the way of his Congressional testimony on the economy…but Traders got a knuckleball. more

For the week of July, 18 2005

“WATER, WATER, EVERYWHERE, NOR ANY DROP TO DRINK”…from Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s “Rime of the Ancient Mariner”…

And economists are likely thinking “Growth, growth everywhere, but not a drop of inflation”. more

For the week of July, 11 2005

“OUR GREATEST GLORY IS NOT IN NEVER FALLING…BUT IN RISING EVERY TIME WE FALL.” (CONFUCIUS)

And the people of London showed inspirational courage after a terrible bombing attack last Thursday. Although the financial markets around the world were rattled, they also showed resilience on Friday and recovered Thursday’s declines. more

For the week of July, 4 2005

FIREWORKS, PARADES, MARCHING BANDS…

were nowhere in sight, as the big moment for home loan rates finally arrived with little fanfare last Thursday afternoon. As expected, the Federal Reserve decided to hike the Fed Funds Rate by .25%, the latest in a string of nine consecutive increases. And this hike probably won't be the last – two or three more hikes are likely in the works. Greenspan reiterated that although inflation appears to be in check, they will continue with their present game plan. This will allow the Fed to reach a “neutral” policy target before Greenspan turns over the keys to his successor in 2006. more

For the week of June 27, 2005

A BUTTERFLY FLAPPING IT’S WINGS IN BRAZIL…COULD THEORETICALLY GENERATE A TORNADO IN TEXAS.

Or at least so says a theory known as the “Butterfly Effect”, often used to show how seemingly unrelated items actually can impact one another. And would you have guessed that a policy decision in Sweden could have helped home loan rates improve by about .125% last week? That’s exactly what did happen…so let’s take a closer look and understand. more

For the week of June 20, 2005

"PEOPLE HAVE A LOVE-HATE RELATIONSHIP WITH INFLATION. THEY HATE INFLATION…BUT LOVE EVERYTHING THAT CAUSES IT." William E. Simon

A classic “catch 22”, and very true…no one likes prices to go up, but everyone desires a healthy, vibrant economy. And once again, inflation was a hot topic last week, as the headliner Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index Reports indicated that inflation seems very tame of late. Other economic and financial news was mixed, and Mortgage Bonds moved very little over the course of the week, leaving home loan rates largely unchanged overall. more

For the week of June 13, 2005

“MR. BIG STUFF…WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE? MR. BIG STUFF…YOU’RE NEVER GONNA GET MY LOVE...” (Jean Knight) 

Bond Traders had this tune on their mind last week, as Mr. “Big Stuff” himself, Chairman Greenspan testified before Congress as to the state of the economy. more

For the week of June 6, 2005

“WELL, SHAKE IT UP, BABY, NOW…TWIST AND SHOUT…” (JOHN LENNON)

And while Traders were braced for a “shake-up” with the big Jobs Report on Friday, they really weren’t prepared for the “twist”. more

For the week of May 30, 2005

SPECIAL HOLIDAY ISSUE

As your Trusted Advisor, I sincerely hope you have been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY. more

For the week of May 23, 2005

HOW YOU FEELIN’? HOT-HOT-HOT!

And once again, Buster Poindexter’s 80’s hit closely describes the status of the housing market, which posted monster numbers on Housing Starts and Building Permits last week. more

For the week of May 16, 2005

“SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE”, SAID THE TORTOISE TO THE HARE…

yet it sure doesn’t make for very interesting news, does it? But in the wake of the blockbuster Jobs Report, Bonds moved slow and steady all last week, and allowed home loan rates to hold steady too. more

For the week of May 9, 2005

“THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD SURPRISE US…IS THAT THERE ARE STILL SOME THINGS THAT CAN SURPRISE US.” (Francois De La Rochefoucauld)

Yet mortgage bonds and home loan rates sure had a surprise last Friday morning, as the Jobs Report arrived with a bang. more

For the week of May 2, 2005

THAT TERRIBLE “GASSY” FEELING…

You know the one. You fill up the tank, and uneasily mull over the fact that you just spent enough to have bought a week’s worth of enchilada dinners…including the bean dip. more

For the week of April 25, 2005

NOTE TO SELF: DON’T YAWN IN COURTROOM…

a lesson hard learned by a Los Angeles juror last week, who was fined $1000 for yawning, and then adding insult to injury by telling the judge he was “bored”. more

For the week of April 18, 2005

“SOME PEOPLE ARE BORN ON THIRD BASE…AND GO THROUGH LIFE THINKING THEY HIT A TRIPLE.” (Barry Switzer)

And last week, Mortgage Bonds were the glad beneficiaries of a “Triple Lindy”, leading to home loan rates improving by about .125% across the board. more

For the week of April 11, 2005

PEACE, LOVE AND...INFLATION?

Last week’s lack of economic data was replaced by “Fedstock”, a week full of Fed-speak and commentary, including a few numbers by the Big Kahuna himself, Chairman Alan Greenspan. more

For the week of April 4, 2005

“SUCCESS IS HOW HIGH YOU BOUNCE WHEN YOU HIT ROCK BOTTOM.” (General George Patton)

And after two straight months of losses, who wouldn’t call last week’s rally in Mortgage Bond prices a success? more

For the week of March 28, 2005

JUST LIKE THE OLD COMMERCIAL…

when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks, the markets listen...and react. And for the seventh straight time, Greenspan announced a quarter-percent hike in short-term interest rates, pushing the Fed Funds rate to 2.75 percent. But unlike the previous six hikes when Mortgage Bonds improved on the news of the Fed moving to control inflation, more

For the week of March 21, 2005

"THE BEST OF ALL LUCK…IS THE LUCK YOU MAKE FOR YOURSELF." (General Douglas MacArthur)

But although they tried, home loan rates didn’t manage to get lucky at all this past week. Economic news was mixed and Mortgage Bonds attempted to rally, but they couldn’t convincingly hold any gains. more

For the week of March 14, 2005

A JAB…FOLLOWED BY A LEFT HOOK…NOW AN UPPER CUT TO THE CHIN!

A scene from Mark Burnett’s new hit reality show, “The Contender”? No – just the past week’s action in Bonds, as they got beaten and battered down to levels not seen since last summer, more

For the week of March 7, 2005

SHINE UP THAT RESUME MARTHA…

you’re out of the slammer and the job market is looking friendly! And though Martha may not even be able to bake a mini muffin without being watched for awhile, all eyes were turned to the Jobs Report last Friday, marching in with 262,000 new jobs created during the month of February, and beating expectations of 225,000. more

For the week of February 28, 2005

ROLL OUT THE RED CARPET...

for this Friday’s Jobs Report, which could be the “Million Dollar Baby” for Bonds and home loan rates. As Traders wait for this big mover and shaker to saunter down the aisle and “thank all the little people for making this possible”, let’s take a look back at the events leading up to this week. more

For the week of February 21, 2005

ANCHORS AWEIGH, CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN?

IDuring Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s testimony before Congress last week, he repeatedly said that inflation was “well anchored”… more

For the week of February 14, 2005

HE WHO FALLS IN LOVE WITH HIMSELF…WILL HAVE NO RIVALS. Benjamin Franklin…

And the rival Bond market Bulls and Bears seemed to declare a truce last week, as a light news agenda meant no big moves for Bonds and home loan rates. Overall, home loan rates were unchanged to very slightly higher. more

For the week of February 07, 2005

ANOTHER SUPERBOWL WEEKEND FLASH!!

But not by Janet Jackson this time, it was actually Mortgage Bonds, streaking into the weekend and showing off their top, boasting the highest close since April 1st, 2004. But after further review… more

For the week of Jan. 31, 2005

Ready, set, hike!

While the Patriots and Eagles are bearing down on each other in the upcoming Super Bowl, the Fed is about to do some hiking of it’s own. But first, let’s take a look back to last week, when mortgage bonds lost some yardage on stronger Home Sales and Consumer Confidence numbers. This caused a dip in prices and a move higher in rates, but then a fumbled Durable Goods number and missed GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Report had bonds and rates “high stepping” into the end zone to finish the week. more

For the week of Jan. 24, 2005

HAIL TO THE CHIEF

President Bush was sworn in for his second term, and his inaugural comments focused on freedom, saying that freedom is the best solution to fighting terror around the globe. He stated “the best hope for peace in our world…is the expansion of freedom in all the world”. more

For the week of Jan. 17, 2005

A FULL MOON AND FRIGID TEMPS IN THE MIDWEST

weren’t enough to stop Bonds in their tracks, as they finally advanced past several tough layers of technical resistance last week. But home loan rates were largely unchanged for the week – Why? Just as Bonds had started to make some advances that could bring lower rates, they screeched to a halt and pulled back on Friday. Let’s take a closer look at what happened.  more

For the week of Jan. 10, 2005

“IF YOU CAN DODGE A WRENCH…YOU CAN DODGE A BALL.” (Rip Torn as “Patches O’Houlihan” in the 2004 hit movie “DODGEBALL”)

But Traders couldn’t dodge the big Jobs Report coming out last Friday morning…and the numbers came in hard and fast, resulting in a narrow miss to the downside. Expectations were for 175,000 new job creations during the month of December, and the actual number came in at 157,000. Normally this worse than expected news would give Mortgage Bonds a small lift higher and help home loan rates improve…but previous month’s (November) Jobs number was revised higher…from 112,000 originally reported, up to 137,000. The net effect was that Bonds and home loan rates were largely unchanged on the day – and while there was some mid-week movement, home loan rates ended the week close to where they started.  more

For the week of Jan. 3, 2005

AN OPTIMIST STAYS UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO SEE THE NEW YEAR IN…A PESSIMIST STAYS UP TO MAKE SURE THE OLD YEAR LEAVES.

(Bill Vaughan) And the Bond market was feeling optimistic at the end of trading on December 31st, closing out the year higher than had been seen in over two weeks. Last Thursday’s Chicago PMI Report was the trigger for the late week improvement…and interestingly enough, the overall PMI Report came in with decent numbers suggesting economic expansion, only slightly lower than the forecast. Generally this would cause Bonds to worsen and home loan rates to increase…but what caused Bonds to pick up a lift was the employment component of PMI, which indicated a contraction in job growth. Combined with the tendency to see exaggerated swings during low volume holiday trading, Bonds managed to move higher and home loan rates improved very slightly at the end of the week.  more

For the week of Dec. 27, 2004

SPECIAL HOLIDAY ISSUE

As your Trusted Advisor, I sincerely hope you have been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY. As the holidays are being observed, the next full issue will arrive on Monday, January 3rd.  more

For the week of Dec. 20, 2004

HO HO HOOOOLY SMOKES, CHRISTMAS IS JUST A WEEK AWAY?

How time seems to fly…and the economic news was flying fast and furious all last week, causing some motion in Bonds and home loan rates. On Tuesday, the Fed did what everyone expected, and raised the Fed Funds Rate by .25%. The eagerly anticipated Policy Statement was worded very similarly to previous statements, with the key sentence being "Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained." This eased concerns of Traders in the short term, as inflation erodes the value of Bonds…yet the year over year rise in inflation is a growing concern.  more

For the week of Dec. 13, 2004

WHOEVER SAID MONEY CAN’T BUY HAPPINESS…DIDN’T KNOW WHERE TO GO SHOPPING. Bo Derek

So are you planning on doing some holiday shopping of your own this week? If you are looking to purchase any imported goods, your dollar might go a bit further than it did just a week ago. Finally, the US Dollar has started to flex a little muscle. And how does this impact home loan rates? Even in light of Friday’s Producer Price Index showing some inflation, typically bad news for Bonds and home loan rates - Bonds shrugged it off and kept improving due to the very recent strength in the Dollar, which will bring the Bond market some shoppers of it’s own. more

For the week of Dec. 4, 2004

"IT’S JUST A JOB. GRASS GROWS, BIRDS FLY, WAVES POUND THE SAND…I BEAT PEOPLE UP” (Muhammad Ali)

…and while most Americans aren’t seeking a job that involves knock outs and body blows, a few less new job creations than expected were dished out during November. Expectations were for 204,000 new jobs created during the month November, and based on the previous two months of hot job growth, hopes were flying high for a strong number. The actual figures came in at a lower than expected 112,000, and additionally, the previous two month's big numbers were revised lower by a total of 54K jobs. more

For the week of Nov. 29, 2004

THIS LAND IS YOUR LAND, THIS LAND IS MY LAND

Wary of Stocks, More Individuals Buy Condos and Rental Property; REITs vs. Owning It Yourself more

HUD ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER HOMEOWNERSHIP NUMBERS

According to Census Bureau third quarter data released on Monday, there are now 73.7 million homeowners in the United States, more than at any time in history. more

BLACK FRIDAY BROUGHT OUT THE GREEN

as motivated shoppers came out in droves on the busiest retail shopping day of the year. The day after Thanksgiving is known as “Black Friday” due to its tradition of putting retailers “in the black”, or in a profitable position for the year. But during the shortened holiday trading week, Bond Traders didn’t make much motion in the trading pits, as Bonds and home loan rates stayed fairly stable overall.

more

For the week of Nov. 22, 2004

A LITTLE RUMOR GOES A LONG WAY

and last week, rumors highly influenced Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates. The weak US Dollar has taken center stage in market news lately, and interestingly enough, whispers about the Dollar actually caused more market movement than any actual economic reports for the week. What happened? Let’s take a closer look. more

For the week of November 1, 2004

HAIL TO THE CHIEF

oh, but come Wednesday morning, who will that “Chief” be? Will we even know by Wednesday? The uncertainty and contention swirling around this week’s upcoming US Presidential election has been causing the markets to take quite a ride. And last week’s slate of interesting economic news turned some heads as well…let’s take a closer look at the headlines. more

For the week of October 25, 2004

TAKE ME HOME FROM THE BALLGAME

It was a week of Visine drops and extra coffee for millions who stayed up late to watch the baseball playoffs. Two rare Game 7 extravaganzas capped off some terrific late night excitement with the Red Sox and Cardinals emerging victorious. Also grabbing a fair share of the headlines is the race for the Presidency...and the mud-slinging continues to fly faster than a Pedro Martinez fastball. more

For the week of October 18, 2004

LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE!

The gloves are off as the big showdowns continue. Bush and Kerry, the Red Sox and the Yankees, Support and Resistance… whoa, what’s that last bit? Last week’s action has placed Bonds – and therefore home loan rates – squarely in the middle of a battle that is likely to be decided this coming week. more

For the week of October 11, 2004

A SWING… AND A MISS!

Not in the heated Major League Baseball playoffs, but a big “whiff” for the highly anticipated Employment Report arriving last Friday morning. Although the “whisper number” in the pits had reached as high as 250,000 new job creations… the Report stepped to the plate and disappointed, coming in at 96,000 new jobs created in September, missing the 150,000 mark that had been expected by economists. Bonds enjoyed the bad outlook and improved sharply on the news, bringing the best gains made in a day since August 6th… which was also brought on by a missed Jobs number. Home loan rates improved by about .125% on Friday alone. more

For the week of October 4, 2004

THERE’S NO DEBATE ABOUT IT

Mortgage Bonds took a sound thrashing last week, with home loan rates rising about .125% across the board. Although the jam-packed economic calendar provided mixed to softer data that seemingly would have supported Bonds at their current levels – a few different factors drove a dark cloud over the Trading pits last week more

For the week of September 27, 2004

SURVIVOR, THE APPRENTICE, FEAR FACTOR… AND THE US PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES?

Not likely. This week’s first Presidential debate will bear no resemblance to “Reality TV”, as the candidates have just agreed to sign a 32 page document that dictates conduct for every move made during the debates, including precisely how the candidates will shake hands and within inches, exactly where their families will be seated. But even under this tight set of rules, the world will be watching. The state of the economy will certainly be a matter of hot discussion, and Greenspan himself will undoubtedly have the popcorn ready to go and be on the edge of his seat. more

For the week of September 20, 2004

INFLATION…THAT’S WHEN YOU PAY FIFTEEN DOLLARS FOR THE TEN-DOLLAR HAIRCUT YOU USED TO GET FOR FIVE DOLLARS WHEN YOU HAD HAIR.

But based on the reports of last week, some of the worry about inflation has gotten a little trim as well. The Consumer Price Index report – a top indicator of retail inflation – came in below expectations on Tuesday. More soft news when the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in super weak, much lower than expected on Thursday. While Bond prices had a small lift on these soggy reports, they gave back all their gains on Friday afternoon as profit takers and traders positioned in front of the big Fed announcement coming this Tuesday. Overall, home loan rates remained largely unchanged for the week.more

For the week of September 13, 2004

PUMP UP THE VOLUME.

It’s not just the kids who are back to school. Traders returned from summer vacations in full force last week, so expect volume levels of trading to increase in the coming days. And might this finally cause some motion in the markets? It would appear so – after sluggish summer trading, volatility finally spiked higher. Mortgage Bonds were tugged in both directions, but home loan rates ended the week slightly improved. more

For the week of September 6, 2004

As your Trusted Advisor

I sincerely hope you have been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY. As the Labor Day holiday is being observed this week, I am sending a short recap of the big financial news last week, as well as a special “Economic Update” excerpted from a recent interview with Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac. Your next full issue will arrive "hot off the press" on Monday, September 13th. more

For the week of August 30, 2004

IF TREADING WATER WERE AN OLYMPIC EVENT?

Mortgage Bonds would surely take the gold. It's now been three straight weeks of sideways trading in Mortgage Bonds, leaving home loan rates basically unchanged during this time. Even intra-day movements within the Bond markets have been sluggish and sleepy. Is it just a case of the "Summertime Blues", with many Traders on vacation? Perhaps, but most news releases have been in-line with expectations and geopolitical events have also been relatively calm. Traders seem to lack the conviction to take a firm position one way or another ahead of next week's important Jobs Report, and also the event risks of the upcoming Republican National Convention. But don't get too cozy? this lull in market activity could just be the calm before the storm. more

For the week of August 23, 2004

THE GOLD GOES TO

Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates, for having poured on the steam and sustaining strong levels not seen since the Spring! Mortgage Bonds have several positive factors at work now. more

For the week of August 16, 2004

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

And as the Olympic torch arrived in Athens, the fire in the stock market continued to fizzle. Just on the heels of a disappointing Jobs Report, Greenspan and the Fed went ahead with the expected .25% hike to the Fed Funds Rate last Tuesday, and even offered continued optimism on the economic climate ahead. But Traders didn't seem to buy in to Big Al's happy thoughts, as they cast a cool eye at record high oil prices, lack of job growth, corporate earnings disappointments and a record high US trade deficit. more

For the week of August 9, 2004

WHERE'S THE LOVE?

Well? forget about the love, where the heck are the JOBS? A major shocker was delivered with last Friday's big monthly Employment Report, showing new job creations for the month of July at an extremely dismal 32,000.  The expected number had been 243,000, and worse yet, the "whisper number" in the trading pits had been a bold 300,000? so this was a very serious miss.  And adding insult to injury, the last two months Employment Reports suffered sharp downward revisions as well.  In response to all the brutal numbers, Mortgage Bonds quickly headed for "Boogie Wonderland" and blasted through strong overhead resistance.  This resulted in home loan rates improving by about .125% on Friday alone! more

For the week of August 2, 2004

IN THE WISE WORDS OF DAN QUAYLE "THIS ELECTION IS ABOUT WHO'S GOING TO BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

and as the Democratic National Convention kicked up its heels in Boston last. week, the market did a little shake and shimmy of its own. Consumer Confidence came out with a bang on Tuesday, marking the highest level seen in years. New Home Sales were also reported better than expected, and continue to be very strong. All this good economic news caused Bonds to slide lower, and home loan rates increased by about .125% on Tuesday alone more

For the week of July 26, 2004

THIS LAND IS YOUR LAND, THIS LAND IS MY LAND

and as the Presidential opponents continued to "jib-jab" at each other this week, Mortgage Bonds seemed to be unsure what land to call their own. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gave his semi-annual Congressional testimony last week, and his overwhelmingly bullish take on the US economy was somewhat of a surprise. Big Al even went as far as saying that the economic slow down over the past month or so, which has helped home loan rates decline slightly, is likely very temporary. These words spooked the Bond market into a late session swoon last Tuesday, and home loan rates worsened by about .125% across the board. more