“THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD SURPRISE US…IS THAT THERE ARE STILL SOME
THINGS THAT CAN SURPRISE US.” (Francois De La Rochefoucauld) Yet
mortgage bonds and home loan rates sure had a surprise last Friday morning, as
the Jobs Report arrived with a bang. Analysts were expecting about 175,000 new
jobs created during April, but the Report showed 274,000 jobs created! In
addition to the estimates being blown out of the water, the past two months were
revised upwards to add almost another 100,000 jobs as well.
The strength in the Job market is good news for housing, even though
this good economic news will pressure rates a bit higher. Home loan rates moved
about .125% higher on Friday alone.
The other spot of news for the week was last Tuesday, but the Fed delivered
no surprise. They acted as expected, ratcheting up short-term interest rates by
another .25% and keeping their Policy Statement largely intact, still using the
term “measured pace” as pertaining to future rate increases.
BUT HERE’S A SURPRISE THAT MIGHT NOT BE A PLEASANT ONE…DID YOU KNOW
THAT YOUR NAME, BIRTHDATE, CURRENT AND PRIOR ADDRESSES AND EVEN PHOTO’S OF YOUR
HOME ARE READILY AVAILABLE ON THE WEB – EVEN IF YOU THINK YOU ARE “UNLISTED”? BE
SURE TO READ THIS WEEK’S REVEALING MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW, AND LEARN HOW TO
PROTECT YOURSELF.
Forecast For The Week
Will the week ahead hold any surprises for home loan rates? The Jobs Report
can certainly set the tone for home loan rates for days and even weeks to
come…and with a lack of high impact reports on the calendar this week, mortgage
bonds and home loan rates will likely be driven by technical factors in the wake
of the Jobs Report, with few surprises in store.
On a technical level, Bonds have been severely “overbought” for weeks –
meaning there have been more buyers than sellers, and the price was driven up
accordingly, helping home loan rates improve. But the trend seems to have
turned, and mortgage bonds and home loan rates will likely worsen a bit over the
next week as Traders continue to react to the hot Jobs Report.
Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday May 6, 2005)
The Mortgage Market View…
You have an unlisted number…so everything is private, right? Would you be
alarmed to know that even when you are “unlisted”, a perfect stranger can look
you up online, see your address, birth date, past addresses, and even see a
photo of your home, down to the detail of your child’s play set out in the back
yard? Alarmed yet? You should be.
Take a look at this website: www.zabasearch.com.
Simply plug your name in, and you are likely to be surprised, and probably a bit
distressed to see all the information that is readily available online.
How could this happen? Easy.
Virtually every major change in your life is recorded somewhere in a
government document. When you are born, a birth certificate is issued. When you
obtain a driver's license, get married, buy a house, file a lawsuit – all of
these events are recorded in public documents easily available to you and to
others.
Government records are intentionally public in order to enable citizens to
monitor the government and to ensure accountability in our society. The
challenge is to balance the public’s right to information with the individual's
right to privacy.
The two main federal privacy laws are the Privacy Act of 1974 and the Freedom
of Information Act, but they apply only to federal government agencies. And they
almost seem to conflict with each other, as the Privacy Act deals with keeping
government records about an individual confidential, while the Freedom of
Information Act is commonly used to pry open government files. But these laws
are attempts to balance the public's right to know…against the rights of an
individual to retain their own privacy.
So how can you get removed from the ZabaSearch site? You can “opt out” by
sending an email to info@zabasearch.com. The
email request must contain your full name, date of birth, address, telephone
number and list of records to be removed (i.e. if multiple addresses are listed,
list each address). Do yourself a favor, and take just a minute right now to get
yourself removed from this list – then forward this article to your friends and
family as well.
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Following last week’s string of power-packed reports, the calendar is
relatively light this week. The highest impact report will arrive on Thursday
with the release of Retail Sales for April.
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good
for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.