IF TREADING WATER WERE AN OLYMPIC EVENT? Mortgage Bonds would
surely take the gold. It's now been three straight weeks of sideways trading in
Mortgage Bonds, leaving home loan rates basically unchanged during this
time. Even intra-day movements within the Bond markets have been sluggish
and sleepy. Is it just a case of the "Summertime Blues", with many Traders on
vacation? Perhaps, but most news releases have been in-line with expectations
and geopolitical events have also been relatively calm. Traders seem to lack the
conviction to take a firm position one way or another ahead of next week's
important Jobs Report, and also the event risks of the upcoming Republican
National Convention. But don't get too cozy? this lull in market activity could
just be the calm before the storm.
THINKING ABOUT SELLING YOUR HOME? CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT YOU WILL
REALIZE A HEALTHY PROFIT? BUT WILL THE UNCLE SAM SWIPE A CHUNK OF THOSE GAINS
AWAY? THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW REVEALS A FEW SURPRISING TIPS THAT JUST
MIGHT HELP YOU KEEP THE TAXMAN AT BAY.
Forecast For The Week
A full slate of economic data is ahead this week, but Traders will be most
keenly focused on Friday's very important Jobs Report. What a difference a
season makes... job growth had erupted in the Spring, but then sputtered through
the Summer. All the buzz about a heated up economy has turned back to worry, as
jobs numbers continue to be dismal of late. Even Mr. Greenspan has labeled the
recent weak numbers a "soft patch". If the latest Jobs Report shows a pop back
to big growth, Mortgage Bonds will likely suffer and home loan rates will
flicker higher. But another clunker of a report may turn the "patch" into a
"ditch", and home loan rates should decline. Stay tuned? it will be
interesting.
Additionally, the Republican National Convention kicks off in New York City,
where security will be high and so will fears of terrorist activity. Traders may
move funds out of stocks and into bonds during the convention as a safe haven
for investors, known as a "flight to quality". This could help bonds early in
the week, and home loan rates could improve just slightly in advance of the Jobs
Report.
Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday August 27, 2004)
The Mortgage Market View?
SELLING YOUR HOUSE FOR A PROFIT? Congratulations! If you've
lived in the home for two of the past five years and are married, you get to
keep up to $500,000 profit free of federal tax; singles keep up to $250,000 tax
free. If your profit level exceeds the limits, you can then deduct costs for
improvements and closing fees before paying tax on the excess. This is important
to know with home prices appreciating at exceptionally high rates over the past
few years.
But what if you haven't lived in the home for two of the past five
years. Can you still catch a break?
Believe it or not, you may be eligible for a prorated tax break on the gains,
based on the amount of time that you were in the home. You will likely qualify
for this tax break if you had to sell due to "unforeseen situations". What
qualifies as an unforeseen situation? Things like needing to sell because of a
job loss, illness, disasters, multiple births from a single pregnancy, and even
divorce.
As always, be sure to consult a tax professional about your individual
situation.
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
A healthy load of economic events is in store for the week, but the biggest
attention will be given to Friday's important Jobs Report. This heavyweight
indicator of employment levels continues to be headline news, as recent months
have showed a slowdown in what looked like a booming job market early in the
year.
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good
for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.