WHERE'S THE LOVE? Well? forget about the love, where the heck
are the JOBS? A major shocker was delivered with last Friday's big monthly
Employment Report, showing new job creations for the month of July at an
extremely dismal 32,000. The expected number had been 243,000, and worse yet,
the "whisper number" in the trading pits had been a bold 300,000? so this was a
very serious miss. And adding insult to injury, the last two months Employment
Reports suffered sharp downward revisions as well. In response to all the
brutal numbers, Mortgage Bonds quickly headed for "Boogie Wonderland" and
blasted through strong overhead resistance. This resulted in home loan
rates improving by about .125% on Friday alone!
But can these gains hold? Mortgage Bond trading was volatile throughout the
day on Friday as the news was digested. Remember, the economy is not losing
jobs, as it had been in the recent past. In fact, there have been eleven
straight months of job growth. So how will Greenspan and the Fed interpret
these numbers? We'll have a chance to find out soon? read on for this week's
forecast.
ARE YOU A SALESPERSON? OR A BUSINESS PERSON WHO HAPPENS TO BE WORKING
IN SALES? YOU AND ONLY YOU? ARE THE CEO OF YOUR CAREER. BE SURE NOT TO MISS
THIS WEEK'S SPECIAL FEATURE, AS NATIONALLY RENOWNED SPEAKER, AUTHOR AND SALES
TRAINER TODD DUNCAN WRITES ESPECIALLY TO MMG WEEKLY READERS ABOUT WHAT IT MEANS
TO ADOPT A "CEO MIND-SET" IN YOUR OWN CAREER.
Forecast For The Week
So what are the implications of last week's stinker of an Employment
Report? The Fed has their monthly meeting this Tuesday, and a 25bp Fed
Funds Rate hike had been considered to be a lock. But with these smelly jobs
numbers, all bets are off. The Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate to combat the
inflation that comes with a strengthening economy, but based on this influential
Report, the threat of inflation and strength of the recovery itself may be
called into question. Greenspan himself had indicated that previous month's
soft jobs numbers were just "transitory", but Friday's Report didn't help the
case for jobs. Look for the Fed to go ahead with the anticipated 25bp hike this
Tuesday, even after the disappointing job numbers, which goes along with their
"measured pace" strategy.
What will be ultra important is Chairman Greenspan's comments. Will he stick
to his guns that the recent job market softness is just temporary? Or will he
offer some opinion that the economic recovery may not be as rip-roaring as
previously hoped? If he remains bullish on the economy, Bonds could lose ground
quickly and home loan rates could pop back up .125% to .25% in a snap. If he
hints at some weakness, Bonds are likely to be supported at their current
nosebleed levels.
Bottom Line: The Fed meeting this Tuesday is a wild card, especially in
light of last week's soggy Jobs Report. Bonds and home loan rates may react
sharply following the Fed Meeting on Tuesday.
Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday August 6, 2004)
The Mortgage Market View?
THIS WEEK'S SPECIAL MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FEATURES NATIONALLY RENOWNED
SPEAKER, AUTHOR AND SALES TRAINER TODD DUNCAN, WRITING TO MMG WEEKLY READERS
ABOUT ADOPTING A "CEO MIND-SET" IN YOUR SALES CAREER.
Dear MMG Weekly Reader ?
It makes no difference where you are in your sales career, whether you're a
sales manager, a sales broker, or a sales rep. You need to determine your
answer to one very important question: Am I a salesperson in business, or am I a
business owner in sales? The fact is, you will not reach your potential as a
sales professional until you answer this question, and answer it correctly.
Adopting what I call a "CEO mind-set" begins when you stop thinking of
yourself as an employee with a job and start thinking of yourself as an owner of
a business with a compelling vision to help people. Consider how your own
thinking has affected your investments in your sales career to this point. When
it comes to your sales job...
Do you only spend money on the things that your employer will allow you to
expense? A business owner would invest whatever is necessary to allow the
business to thrive, even if that means using his or her own cash.
Do you simply stay busy so the time passes more quickly each day? A business
owner utilizes every minute of the workday because wasted time equals wasted
money and wasted opportunities.
Are you more concerned with your effort or your effectiveness? A business
owner measures effectiveness first ? sprinting on a treadmill gets one
nowhere.
Are you more concerned with the quantity or the quality of your sales? A
business owner focuses on quality, knowing that trust established with clients
multiplies quantity of sales.
Are you more concerned with your activity or your results? A business owner
measures results on a regular basis to determine what activities are and are not
working.
Are you more concerned with earning a potential client's cash or
confidence? A business owner knows that without trust, they will never realize
the full monetary value of a client, and therefore is willing to trade
commission for constancy if necessary.
Would you say you've been thinking more like an employee or a
CEO? The defining characteristic of a CEO mind-set is thinking like an
owner. It is taking responsibility for your own growth and the growth of your
business. Simply put, like I discuss in High Trust Selling's Law of the
Shareholder, it's acknowledging that you alone are the largest shareholder in
your business, then beginning to act like it's so.
Thinking like a CEO is the first key to becoming a highly successful
salesperson. You see, the future of your sales career begins not in your hands
or your feet, but in your mind. In other words, how you think as a sales
professional will determine how you act as a sales
professional. Successful thinking precedes successful selling. Until
you begin to think like a successful business owner you won't consistently make
decisions or take actions that maximize your sales business. Look at it this
way: Until you can think for yourself, customers won't trust what you're
thinking. And in sales, trust is everything.
To Your Success,
Todd Duncan
For more information on the CEO mind-set and High Trust Selling, visit www.hightrustselling.com.
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Another action-packed economic report calendar this week, headlined by the
Fed's Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday. After the anemic Employment
Report last Friday, it is now not as certain what actions and comments the Fed
will take at this meeting. The remainder of the week will bring important data
from several sectors. The Retail Sales Report on Thursday could be a mover, as
it will bring good indications of consumer spending patterns and consumer
confidence, which has been very high of late. Friday's Producer Price Index will
give us insights as to wholesale producer's ability to increase prices. All in
all, Traders will have a plethora of information to chew on this week, and Bond
movement could be volatile based on these releases.
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good
for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.