“OUR GREATEST GLORY IS NOT IN NEVER FALLING…BUT IN RISING EVERY TIME WE
FALL.” (CONFUCIUS) And the people of London showed inspirational
courage after a terrible bombing attack last Thursday. Although the financial
markets around the world were rattled, they also showed resilience on Friday and
recovered Thursday’s declines.
US Stocks rallied higher at the end of the week on strong economic data,
including the unemployment rate dipping to 5%, its lowest level in almost four
years! The tight labor market means that employers will have to pony up more
money for their new hires, and also to keep their present employees from being
wooed away. This of course leads to more money for consumers to spend, which
helps the economy keep chugging along even in light of recent higher oil
prices.
But the good economic news does raise concerns about inflation…the
arch enemy of Bonds and interest rates. This concern caused home loan
rates to edge a bit higher by the end of the week, about .125% across the
board.
ARE YOU LOCKED IN A CELL? WE’RE TALKING CELL PHONE PLANS HERE.
THERE’S A GOOD CHANCE YOUR MOBILE PHONE PROVIDER’S CONTRACT HAS A “LOCK UP”
PERIOD ON YOUR ACCOUNT, WHICH CAN MAKE GETTING OUT EARLY VERY COSTLY. DON’T MISS
THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW ON HOW TO GET THE BEST MOBILE FOR YOUR
MONEY.
Forecast For The Week
After the excitement of last week, Traders will welcome the lack of economic
news for the first part of this week. But as they digest all the recent market
action, the current weakness in Mortgage Bonds that led to an increase in home
loan rates can’t be ignored. Let’s take a closer look.
Remember that when Bond prices move higher, this means home loan rates
improve, and when Bonds move lower, home loan rates worsen. In the chart below,
notice how the green “candles” on the far right of the chart have very long
“wicks”. This means that although Bond prices traded higher throughout each
particular day, they were pushed back lower by the closing bell and closed near
their worst levels of the day. It is also quite interesting to see how the
Moving Averages were the exact points at which Bond prices reversed and moved
lower, typically a sign of market weakness.
Later this week, Traders will get a read on the strength of the consumer by
way of the Retail Sales Report. And as always, close attention will be paid to
the latest news on inflation with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer
Price Index (PPI) Reports. In the absence of major news in advance of
these releases, home loan rates will likely remain stable.
Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday July 08, 2005)
The Mortgage Market View…
EVER TRIED TO SWITCH YOUR MOBILE SERVICE MID-CONTRACT…AND WONDER WHAT
HAPPENED TO ALL THE NICE “FRIENDS AND FAMILY” AT YOUR SERVICE
PROVIDER?
They don’t want to lose you. But since your cell phone number is now
portable, it should be easier than ever to simply switch carriers to take
advantage of better coverage or lower prices. Yet many mobile phone plans have a
contract period of two years, and getting out of a plan early can cost from $150
- $200, which may negate your savings gained from making a switch.
With so many phones and plans, how can you make a choice you will not regret
before your contract is up? Ask yourself - “Do I just have to have the latest
bells and whistles on my phone?” If the answer is yes, you will probably be
better off paying a bit more up front for a shorter lock in on your contract. On
the other hand, if you are not a super heavy cell phone user, or the longer you
can live with the same phone, the more up-front savings you can gain from
accepting a longer contract.
But even after you have decided on a contract period, there are so many
different plans to choose from…is there an easy way to do this? Yes! Take a look
at www.myrateplan.com for help
on cell phones, providers and plans in your specific area. It’s fast and easy to
use. Best of all, it can help save you some cash.
Additionally, if you’re looking for the newest equipment models on the market
as well as reviews, go to www.phonescoop.com.
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
The focal point for Traders this week will center on the Retail Sales and
Consumer Price Index reports on Thursday, but Friday will provide a bevy of
economic data as well.
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good
for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.