BATTER UP! Will the batter decide to take the first pitch? Or
will he swing away? Traders stepped up to the plate last week to wait on the
pitch Alan Greenspan was going to hurl at them in the way of his Congressional
testimony on the economy…but Traders got a knuckleball.
The big surprise was in the form of an announcement by China’s Central Bank
that they are going to let their currency, the Yuan, float against a basket of
various foreign currencies rather than be fixed to the US Dollar…and this is a
perfect example of how events around the world impact home loan rates right here
in our own backyard. On the announcement, Bond prices took a nosedive on the
concern that the Chinese will be now purchasing fewer US Bonds, as they will now
have a reduced need to participate in currency intervention for the US Dollar.
Bonds immediately came under heavy selling pressure as a result, causing
home loan rates to rise by about .125% across the board.
There were also reports of more bombing and terrorist threats in London,
along with a suicide bombing suspect being shot by police on Friday…and this had
the already jittery markets rattled even further, as Traders tried to absorb all
the news.
On the other hand, Chairman Greenspan offered no surprises in his testimony,
and his comments were largely overshadowed by the other events of the week. He
indicated that the Fed will keep pushing short-term rates higher, and had mostly
positive comments about the US economy. However, he cautioned that a big run-up
in already high energy prices – especially oil – could throw a wrench into US
economic growth.
AND SPEAKING OF HIGH OIL PRICES…WHAT’S IN YOUR GAS TANK? ARE YOU
ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE THAT YOU NEED TO BE SPENDING THE EXTRA MONEY FOR PREMIUM GAS
WHEN YOU FILL UP? DON’T MISS THIS WEEK’S INTRIGUING MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW, AND
FIND OUT IF YOU CAN KEEP SOME EXTRA CASH WHERE IT BELONGS…IN YOUR
WALLET.
Forecast For The Week
BOO! Ever had someone jump out from behind a corner and scare you? A normal
reaction would be to jump or scream…but if you had known that the person was
there, your reaction would of course have been far less dramatic. The surprise
announcement by the Chinese had a similar impact on the market. There had been
speculation that China would announce a change in their currency policy sometime
in August, but no one saw the change coming quite so soon. This means that the
market reaction, a sharp worsening of Bonds and home loan rates, was likely
exaggerated purely because of the surprise factor. The market began to settle
out on Friday afternoon, but what might happen next?
This week brings a full slate of economic reports for Traders to watch, as
well as a good look at the housing market with New and Existing Home Sales.
Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates have been worsening of late, and now stand at
a critical point. There are many different technical support and resistance
levels, which act as natural floors and ceilings that can sometimes limit price
movement. When Bonds took their big slide in the wake of the Chinese
announcement, they stopped dead on a floor of support…and then recovered on
Friday right up to a ceiling of resistance.
So the battle begins – this week’s news will determine if Bonds will be
able to muscle back above this ceiling and help home loan rates improve, or if
they will be pushed back lower to the floor of support or lower…and cause home
loan rates to worsen.
Chart: Fannie Mae 5.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday July 22, 2005)
The Mortgage Market View…
In a world where bigger, faster, and more expensive is typically seen as a
gauge for getting what’s best, the same may not be true in what you need to make
your car run better. Many people believe you need premium fuel to get that extra
juice when pulling away from the stop light or to just plain make your car run
better. But this is not always the case.
It used to be that if a car called for premium gas and you pumped in regular,
your car would knock and ping and even vibrate. Pinging or knocking is what you
get when you have gasoline burning uncontrollably in your engine. If you have
ever turned off your car but it continued to sputter and run, this is an example
of knocking. But that was before they essentially put a laptop under the hood,
as has been done for about the last fifteen years of manufacturing. Now, sensors
take readings and can tune the engine as you drive, adjusting the timing for
whatever grade fuel you put in the tank.
When choosing what grade of gasoline to use, read the owner's manual
carefully. The key is to figure out whether premium gasoline is "required" or
"recommended." If it is only recommended, then you could easily opt for a lower
grade of gas and save some cash. And most cars manufactured today are actually
made to run on regular gasoline. The exception tends to run
in some performance and luxury cars where they are designed to run on premium
gas alone. However, many cars that are designed to run on premium have sensors
that will still let you run them on regular with no harm done, albeit with
slightly less power.
In most cases you can run your vehicle on regular gas. But if you just feel
better running premium in your tank or you truly can see a difference in the
performance, don’t get too worked up. The bottom line is you’ll dish out about
$20 a month more for premium if you average 15K miles a year and get 13 MPG. On
the other hand, if you have a car that sips its juice sparingly and averages 25
MPG, the difference at the pump falls to about $10 a month more for premium.
With rising fuel costs, it may be helpful to know fuel efficiency rankings
and estimates. For more information, check out Most and
Least Fuel Efficient Cars.
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
The markets will contend with a full slate of economic news this week that is
expected to show an improving economy, as well as a good look at the housing
market with Existing and New Home Sales on Monday and Wednesday.
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good
for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.