THAT TERRIBLE “GASSY” FEELING…You know the one. You fill up the tank, and uneasily mull over the fact that you just spent enough to have bought a week’s worth of enchilada dinners…including the bean dip. But help is on the way – did you know that oil finally went back under $50 a barrel for the first time in over two months? Not just good news at the gas pump, its also very good news for business and Stocks. Investors chased the hot action in Stocks by selling off Bonds, pressuring home loan rates to trend slightly higher late in the week.

And the news and economic reports of last week had already been very mixed, sending some conflicting signals about the pace of inflation and the overall strength of the US economy. Bonds were shaken but not stirred as they absorbed a slate of reports that unfortunately did not provide a clear picture as to where the trend on growth and inflation may go from here. Home loan rates bumped around and had improved just slightly with the news midweek, but ended largely unchanged overall.

DID YOU LEND YOUR GOOD FRIENDS AT THE IRS A FEW THOUSAND DOLLARS THIS YEAR…INTEREST FREE? YOU DIDN’T NEED TO…AND UNCLE SAM PROBABLY WOULDN’T DO THE SAME FOR YOU. READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW TO LEARN A SMART WAY TO KEEP YOUR HARD EARNED DOLLARS WHERE THEY BELONG...IN YOUR OWN POCKET.

So since last week ended up being an unsatisfying combo platter of good and bad news for the economy…what are the hot topics going to be for the week ahead?

First, another Fed meeting is on the slate for Tuesday morning. It is highly expected that the Fed will once again hike the Fed Funds rate by .25%. Remember that this is a short-term rate, which impacts credit cards, credit lines, auto loans and the like. Now in times past, home loan rates would actually decline slightly when the Fed would decide to hike the Fed Funds rate, as they are doing so to combat inflation, the arch-enemy of Bonds and home loan rates. But in recent days, the Fed has clearly broadcast what their moves are likely to be…and so the anticipated .25% hike has already been built into the market. Only a surprise hike of .50% or a change in the wording of the policy statement is likely to cause a major reaction for Bonds and home loan rates.

Traders are also looking ahead to next Friday’s big Jobs Report, which is usually a market mover. Last month’s number came in at 110,000, which was lower than analysts were expecting…so what will this month’s number hold in store? The hope is to hear that 170,000 new jobs were created during April, but we’ll all have to wait and see. Remember that positive economic news, like strong job growth, is bad news for Bonds and home loan rates – whereas a disappointing report, like weak job growth, will help Bonds and home loan rates improve.

Take a peek at the chart below – you can see that Bond prices have traded in a fairly tight range lately, and home loan rates have been mostly stable. But this week’s news desk is loaded for bear…and the flavor of that news will dictate if home loan rates can hold their ground or bust a move.

YOU’VE GOT MAIL! The local letter carrier is certainly very popular during this time of year, and many people are anxiously checking their mailbox. What are they all waiting for? It sure isn’t their most recent VISA statement or electric bill. It’s that juicy tax refund!

People just can’t wait to get their hands on that check – and they probably have exact plans on how they will spend it. But isn’t there a better way to get your money faster than tackling the letter carrier?

Sure, many individuals who are expecting refund checks have discovered services that give them an advance on their money. While this service will give you the cash right at the time of filing, the fees involved can take a hefty chunk out of your refund. So what’s a tax (over) payer to do?

The IRS can actually help.

When you think about it, getting a refund check means that you let the IRS use your money throughout the year without paying you any interest. Wouldn’t you rather have the money during the year yourself? Here’s how you do it. The IRS allows you to increase the number of dependants on your W-4 withholding form, meaning that less will be withheld for taxes from each paycheck. In the past, if you claimed greater than nine dependants, an explanation and approval may have been required. But the IRS has lifted this restriction, allowing you to voluntarily increase your dependants claimed. This lets you have more money in each paycheck instead of “loaning” the money to the IRS and having to wait for a refund.

But let’s not go overboard…you should only lessen the periodic tax withholding to match the expected refund. This way you are taking your refund as you go, instead of letting the IRS hold on to it. There is even a nifty calculator the IRS has provided for free, which lets you see how a change in withholding will affect your paycheck.

Here’s the link to the free withholding calculator: IRS Bean Counter

And managing your withholding can be a great tool if you are currently renting, but are about to buy a home. The new housing expense may be greater than the rent payments, but the new home will give you some important tax deductions. By adjusting your withholding when you buy a home, you can get the benefit of the new home deductions spread into each paycheck…which can make that new home payment a lot more comfortable.

Before you make any changes, you want to be sure you are balancing the amounts carefully and correctly, so it is always a good idea to check with your tax professional.

Here comes another week of high-impact economic reports and events that will keep Bond Traders on their game, including Tuesday’s Federal Reserve FOMC Policy Statement and Friday’s big Employment Report.

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

For the week of May 2 – May 6