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The greatest good you can do for another is not just to share your riches but to reveal to him his own.
~ Benjamin Disraeli
 
 
Red Letter Mortgage
Your Lender for Life
 
Provided to you Exclusively
By
Dirk Todd &
Red Letter Mortgage
 
Dirk Todd
Red Letter Mortgage
6417 Odana Road
Madison, WI 53719
Office: 608-273-3554
Cell: 608-444-8599
E-Mail: dirk@redlettermortgage.com
Website: www.redlettermortgage.com
 
Dirk Todd
 
For the week of Oct 18, 2004 --- Vol. 2, Issue 40
Last Week In Review

LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE! The gloves are off as the big showdowns continue. Bush and Kerry, the Red Sox and the Yankees, Support and Resistance… whoa, what’s that last bit? Last week’s action has placed Bonds – and therefore home loan rates – squarely in the middle of a battle that is likely to be decided this coming week.

Now last week was loaded with economic news, but it was a mixed bag of hits and misses. Even with oil hitting record highs, Bonds remained relatively stable overall, and home loan rates held steady at their present levels.

Although the battle for the Pennant may not impact Bonds and home loan rates, the battle for the Oval Office certainly does. As November 2nd looms ever closer, Bonds may experience some volatility due to the market uncertainty felt in advance of the Presidential election. And along with this increased chance of volatile trading, a showdown is coming on a technical level that will likely force Bonds and home loan rates to bust a move this week. Read on to find out what the battle in the Bond market is all about…

BUT FIRST, HAVE YOU BEEN BATTLING THE URGE TO TOSS OUT THAT OLD ATARI SYSTEM GATHERING DUST IN THE BASEMENT? WHAT ABOUT YOUR STARTER SET OF GOLF CLUBS THAT YOU CAN’T SEEM TO PART WITH? READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR A SUPER EASY WAY TO SAY “GOODBYE” TO YOUR BY-GONES, AND MAKE A LITTLE PROFIT WITH VERY LITTLE EFFORT.

Forecast For The Week

This week could be interesting…while the economic calendar will not provide as many potentially market moving reports as we saw last week, Bonds are going to be caught in a tight “showdown squeeze” on a technical level. So what’s this squeezing all about?

Take a look at the chart below, and see how Bonds have been unable to make a significant break above the ceiling of resistance shown at $101.75. In fact, Bonds have not traded above this level for longer than one day since April 2nd of this year! But the chart also shows the floor of support at the 25-day Moving Average coming up, effectively “squeezing” Bonds between a floor and a ceiling, and forcing them to make a move higher or lower. Bonds moving higher would cause home loan rates to improve…but based on recent history, it feels unlikely that Bonds could muster up the strength to convincingly power through that tough ceiling of resistance.

Bottom Line: Bonds are feeling the “squeeze”, and the breakout that appears to be pending may cause a sharp move in home loan rates in either direction.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday October 15, 2004)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market View…

GOT “STUFF”? The short-wave radio that seemed like such a good idea at the time…your collection of Bird of the Month plates…the clarinet that you have finally accepted is not going to make you the next Kenny G. What do you do with all your odds and ends?

If you have ever wished for a garage sale without the hassle, selling your stuff on the net through Ebay could do the trick. But wait, not being an Ebay groupie, you are unfamiliar with the system? And you don’t want to deal with the follow up and shipping? Then check out “Auction Drop”…it may be the perfect way to turn some unwanted stuff into quick cash. Auction Drop makes it easy because they do it all, including all the Ebay work.

All you need to do is drop off your unpackaged items at any UPS store…then wait for a check. Auction Drop takes care of all the steps in-between. They collect your stuff, photo it, post it on Ebay, answer questions from potential buyers, ship it out, and get you paid.

Once your item is posted, a web link is emailed to you so you can see how the bidding is going if you like. But don’t try to sell a slightly used pair of socks - they probably won’t sell. And speaking of items that don’t sell, Auction Drop will send them back to you with no shipping charge.

Is this too good to be true? No, but there are fees for this convenient service. Auction Drop will charge between 20%-38% in juice for their service. The higher the ticket item, the less the percentage fee within the range. Additionally, Ebay will charge their normal fee.

So…if you’re in the mood to get your virtual garage sale in motion, you can visit www.auctiondrop.com to find out what items are a good fit and get the forms filled out, or simply start at any UPS store – they have the forms ready to go.

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Will less be more? The economic calendar slims down quantity-wise this week, but will still pack a punch quality-wise with the high impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI leading the charge on Tuesday at 8:30am ET. Initial Jobless Claims will follow on Thursday at 8:30am ET, along with the potentially high impact Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at Noon ET.

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

For the week of October 18 – October 22, 2004

Economic Calendar

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Red Letter Mortgage ~ 6417 Odana Road Suite B ~ Madison, WI  53719
Phone: 608.273.3554  Email: info@redlettermortgage.com
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