LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE! The gloves are off as
the big showdowns continue. Bush and Kerry, the Red Sox and the Yankees, Support
and Resistance… whoa, what’s that last bit? Last week’s action has placed Bonds
– and therefore home loan rates – squarely in the middle of a battle that is
likely to be decided this coming week.
Now last week was loaded with economic news, but it was a mixed bag of hits
and misses. Even with oil hitting record highs, Bonds remained relatively stable
overall, and home loan rates held steady at their present
levels.
Although the battle for the Pennant may not impact Bonds and home loan rates,
the battle for the Oval Office certainly does. As November 2nd looms ever
closer, Bonds may experience some volatility due to the market uncertainty felt
in advance of the Presidential election. And along with this increased chance of
volatile trading, a showdown is coming on a technical level that will likely
force Bonds and home loan rates to bust a move this week. Read on to find out
what the battle in the Bond market is all about…
BUT FIRST, HAVE YOU BEEN BATTLING THE URGE TO TOSS OUT THAT OLD
ATARI SYSTEM GATHERING DUST IN THE BASEMENT? WHAT ABOUT YOUR STARTER SET OF GOLF
CLUBS THAT YOU CAN’T SEEM TO PART WITH? READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW
FOR A SUPER EASY WAY TO SAY “GOODBYE” TO YOUR BY-GONES, AND MAKE A LITTLE PROFIT
WITH VERY LITTLE EFFORT.
Forecast For The Week
This week could be interesting…while the economic calendar will not provide
as many potentially market moving reports as we saw last week, Bonds are going
to be caught in a tight “showdown squeeze” on a technical level. So what’s this
squeezing all about?
Take a look at the chart below, and see how Bonds have been
unable to make a significant break above the ceiling of resistance shown at
$101.75. In fact, Bonds have not traded above this level for longer than one day
since April 2nd of this year! But the chart also shows the floor of support at
the 25-day Moving Average coming up, effectively “squeezing” Bonds between a
floor and a ceiling, and forcing them to make a move higher or lower. Bonds
moving higher would cause home loan rates to improve…but based on recent
history, it feels unlikely that Bonds could muster up the strength to
convincingly power through that tough ceiling of resistance.
Bottom Line: Bonds are feeling the “squeeze”, and the breakout that
appears to be pending may cause a sharp move in home loan rates in either
direction.
Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday October 15, 2004)
The Mortgage Market View…
GOT “STUFF”? The short-wave radio that seemed like such a good
idea at the time…your collection of Bird of the Month plates…the clarinet that
you have finally accepted is not going to make you the next Kenny G. What do you
do with all your odds and ends?
If you have ever wished for a garage sale without the hassle, selling your
stuff on the net through Ebay could do the trick. But wait, not being an Ebay
groupie, you are unfamiliar with the system? And you don’t want to deal with the
follow up and shipping? Then check out “Auction Drop”…it may be the perfect way
to turn some unwanted stuff into quick cash. Auction Drop makes it easy because
they do it all, including all the Ebay work.
All you need to do is drop off your unpackaged items at any UPS store…then
wait for a check. Auction Drop takes care of all the steps in-between. They
collect your stuff, photo it, post it on Ebay, answer questions from potential
buyers, ship it out, and get you paid.
Once your item is posted, a web link is emailed to you so you can see how the
bidding is going if you like. But don’t try to sell a slightly used pair of
socks - they probably won’t sell. And speaking of items that don’t sell, Auction
Drop will send them back to you with no shipping charge.
Is this too good to be true? No, but there are fees for this convenient
service. Auction Drop will charge between 20%-38% in juice for their service.
The higher the ticket item, the less the percentage fee within the range.
Additionally, Ebay will charge their normal fee.
So…if you’re in the mood to get your virtual garage sale in motion, you can
visit www.auctiondrop.com to find
out what items are a good fit and get the forms filled out, or simply start at
any UPS store – they have the forms ready to go.
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Will less be more? The economic calendar slims down quantity-wise this week,
but will still pack a punch quality-wise with the high impact Consumer Price
Index (CPI) and the Core CPI leading the charge on Tuesday at 8:30am ET. Initial
Jobless Claims will follow on Thursday at 8:30am ET, along with the potentially
high impact Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at Noon ET.
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good
for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.